ABSTRACT
In line with previous instalments of analysis from this ongoing study to monitor ‘Covid Seroprevalence’ among blood donors in South Africa, we report on an analysis of 3395 samples obtained in mid-March 2022 from all provinces of South Africa – a timepoint just after the fourth (primarily omicron) wave of infections. As in our previous analyses, we see no evidence of age and sex dependence of prevalence, but significant variation by race. Differences between provinces have largely disappeared, as prevalence appears to have saturated. In contrast to previous estimates from this study, which reported only prevalence of anti-nucleocapsid antibodies, this present work also reports results from testing for anti-spike antibodies. This addition allows us to categorise those donors whose only antibodies are from vaccination. Our race-weighted national extrapolation is that 98% of South Africans have some antibodies, noting that 10% have anti-spike antibodies but not anti-nucleocapsid antibodies - a reasonable proxy for having both 1) been vaccinated and 2) avoided infection.
ABSTRACT
To inform public health policy, it is critical to monitor COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE), including against acquiring infection. We estimated VE using a retrospective cohort study among repeat blood donors who donated during the first half of 2021, demonstrating a viable approach for monitoring of VE via serological surveillance. Using Poisson regression, we estimated overall VE was 88.8% (95% CI: 86.2-91.1), adjusted for demographic covariates and variable baseline risk. Time since first reporting vaccination, age, race-ethnicity, region, and calendar time were statistically significant predictors of incident infection. Studies of VE during periods of Delta and Omicron spread are underway.
Subject(s)
COVID-19ABSTRACT
To inform public health policy, it is critical to monitor COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE), including against acquiring infection. We estimated VE using a retrospective cohort study among repeat blood donors who donated during the first half of 2021, demonstrating a viable approach for monitoring of VE via serological surveillance. Using Poisson regression, we estimated overall VE was 88.8% (95% CI: 86.2–91.1), adjusted for demographic covariates and variable baseline risk. Time since first reporting vaccination, age, race-ethnicity, region, and calendar time were statistically significant predictors of incident infection. Studies of VE during periods of Delta and Omicron spread are underway.
Subject(s)
COVID-19ABSTRACT
In line with previous instalments of analysis from this ongoing study to monitor ‘Covid Seroprevalence’ among blood donors in South Africa, we report on analysis of 3395 samples obtained from 8 to 12 November 2021 in all provinces of South Africa except the Western Cape. As in our previous analyses, we see no evidence of age and sex dependence of prevalence, but substantial variation by province, and by race within each province, from which we generated provincial total point estimates (EC-74%; FS-75%; GP-68%; ZN-73%; LP-66; MP-73%; NC-63%; NW-81% ) and a ‘South Africa minus Western Cape’ national prevalence estimate of 71% (95%CI 69-74%). We note that sample collection occurred just before the omicron variant driven wave in South Africa, but otherwise present these results without significant interpretation.
ABSTRACT
This is a brief report. The intention is simply to communicate findings and thereby trigger discussion and further work – not to provide a substantial contextual, comparative, or interpretive narrative.
ABSTRACT
Background: Population-level estimates of prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody positivity (seroprevalence) is a crucial epidemiological indicator for tracking the Covid-19 epidemic. Such data are in short supply, both internationally and in South Africa. The South African blood services (the South African National Blood Service, SANBS and the Western Cape Blood Service, WCBS) are coordinating a nationally representative survey of blood donors, which it is hoped can become a cost-effective surveillance method with validity for community-level seroprevalence estimation.Methods: Leveraging existing arrangements, SANBS human research ethics committee permission was obtained to test blood donations collected on predefined days (7th, 10th ,12th ,15th ,20th ,23th and 25th January) for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, using the Roche Elecsys Anti-SARS-CoV-2 assay on the cobas e411 platform currently available in the blood services’ donation testing laboratories. Using standard methods, prevalence analysis was done by province, age and race, allowing age to be regarded as either a continuous or categorical variable. Testing was performed in the Eastern Cape (EC), Free State (FS), KwaZulu Natal (ZN) and Northern Cape (NC) provinces.Results: We report on data from 4858 donors - 1457 in EC; 463 in NC; 831 in FS and 2107 in ZN. Prevalence varied substantially across race groups and between provinces, with seroprevalence among Black donors consistently several times higher than among White donors, and the other main population groups (Coloured and Asian) not consistently represented in all provinces. There is no clear evidence that seroprevalence among donors varies by age. Weighted net estimates of prevalence (in the core age range 15-69) by province (compared with official clinically-confirmed COVID-19 case rates in mid-January 2021) are: EC-63%(2.8%), NC-32%(2.2%), FS-46%(2.4%), and ZN-52%(2.4%).Conclusions: Our study demonstrates substantial differences in dissemination of SARS-CoV-2 infection between different race groups, most likely explained by historically based differences in socio-economic status and housing conditions. As has been seen in other areas, even such high seroprevalence does not guarantee population-level immunity against new outbreaks – probably due to viral evolution and waning of antibody neutralization. Despite its limitations, notably a ‘healthy donor’ effect, it seems plausible that these estimates are reasonably generalisable to actual population level anti-SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence, but should be further verified.